Prediction of Timofei Derepasko vs Koray Kirci at Islamabad Challenger 11-24-25

• Recent second serve performance shows Timofei Derepasko has a slight edge, winning 41.89% of points, while Koray Kirci wins 41.22%.
• In returning their opponent's second serve, Derepasko again leads with 47.68%, compared to Kirci's 41.83%.
• For first serve returns, Kirci slightly outperforms Derepasko, winning 30.33% of points versus 28.19%.
• Under pressure, Kirci has a superior breakpoint save rate at 53.67%, just ahead of Derepasko's 51.02%.
• Over the last year, Derepasko has a higher win percentage at 62.86%, while Kirci is at 56.76%.
• Analyzing surface preferences, both players share a best win percentage of 75% on hard courts, but Derepasko struggles on clay, and Kirci has a poor record on grass.
• Both have played mainly in ITF tournaments, with Derepasko slightly more successful at 62.86%, compared to Kirci's 58.33%.
• The average opponent rank faced by Derepasko is 351.17, whereas Kirci has faced stronger competition with an average rank of 331.32.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Kirci has a significant advantage, having won 88% of these sets compared to Derepasko's 50%.
• Breakpoint conversion rates are nearly identical, with Derepasko at 32.89% and Kirci at 32.41%.

Editorial Prediction (November 23, 2025, UTC):

Heading into the upcoming match, Timofei Derepasko's recent form in securing points off both second serves and returns demonstrates a slight edge over Koray Kirci. This could prove to be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the match.

While Kirci shows resilience under pressure with a better breakpoint save percentage and excels in deciding sets, Derepasko's overall win percentage and consistency on hard courts highlight distinct strengths. The match could pivot on Derepasko's ability to capitalize on crucial moments, as third set performance might not be his forte compared to Kirci.

Considering these analyses, Derepasko, armed with slightly better second serve and return stats, seems more likely to come out on top in this encounter, though it promises to be a closely contested match.